A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
