Conflict-ravaged Burma Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The ruling junta is holding a staggered election nearly five years after it took control in a coup, which sparked widespread opposition and spiralled into a civil war.

Observers say the junta, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the rights of free speech, association or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for disrupting or criticising the polls under a new law which imposes harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a promotional video promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, pointing out that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats asking people to boycott the polls.

The army has been fighting on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own militias. It lost control of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it challenging to predict a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while others are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into stages, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has urged political dialogue to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed criticism of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not intended for the outside world," a junta spokesman stated at a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "the path to democracy".